National Rebound in Existing Home Sales

Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – jumped 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2 percent higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. “Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.”

Even with the improvement, Yun said the market is underperforming. “Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery, most of the 75 million home owning families have more wealth tied to their homes. Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet,” he said. “We’re getting early indications of price stabilization, but we need a steady supply of qualified buyers to meaningfully bring inventories down and return us to a period of normal, steady price growth and to fully remove consumer fears, which would then revive the broader economy. Without a firm foundation for middle-class wealth recovery, the post-recession economic growth likely will be one of the weakest in U.S. history.”

Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 7.5 percent to 3.63 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 7.8-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from an 9.3-month supply in August. Unsold inventory totals are 15.0 percent below a year ago.

“The current housing supply is the lowest we’ve seen in two and a half years,” Yun said. “If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.06 percent in September from 5.19 percent in August; the rate was 6.04 percent in September 2008.

Excerpted from Realtor.org
Big Rebound in Existing-Home Sales Shows First-Time Buyer Momentum

Third Quarter Activity Report

The summer real estate market picked up markedly beginning in June and July, resulting in many third quarter sales. Many buyers, who had been waiting out the market for the past few years, came off the sidelines this summer and decided to buy. Low interest rates and the first time homebuyer credit have also helped to spur activity. The general feeling is that the market has leveled off and is not expected to drop significantly further. Despite the increased summer activity, the number of sales in Provincetown and Truro are still down about 50% off of last year’s figures while Wellfleet held fairly even with last year’s sales (which had already suffered a large decrease over the previous year).

Check out the "Real Estate Blog" on our Web site for charts compare year-to-date sales figures for Provincetown, Truro and Wellfleet with the same period last year and report on the average Days on Market of the property that sold.

Provincetown

The most active segment of the condominium market has been in the $300K - $600K range, which is accounts for 36 of the 55 sales and comprises 16 of the 30 pending sales. In the single family market, most of the activity is in the $750K and under market, with 9 sales thus far in this category and 6 more pending.

Truro

Most of the activity in Truro is in lower priced single family homes. 8 of the 15 sales were under 600K. 3 Sales were between 600K-800K and 4 were over 1M. There have been no sales this year between 800K – 1M.

Wellfleet

In Wellfleet, interest in single family homes comprises most of the activity in this market. The heaviest concentration of sales has been between 300K-600K, with all of the sales being under 900K.

Mortgage Rates Fall

The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.04 percent, with points averaging 0.7 for the week ended Sept. 17. That is down from previous week, when it averaged 5.07 percent, according to Freddie Mac.

Last year at this time, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.78 percent.
The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage this week averaged 4.47 percent, with points averaging 0.6, down from the previous week, when it averaged 4.5 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.35 percent. This is the lowest it has been since the McLean, Va.-based lender (NYSE: FRE) started tracking it in 1991.

“Interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages eased for the third consecutive week and remained at three-month lows,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac VP and chief economist, in a news release.

On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that loan applications fell by a seasonally adjusted 8.6 percent, the result of the Labor Day holiday.

Reprinted from Los Angeles Business from bizjournals – Sept. 17, 2009

Uptrend Continues in Pending Home Sales Nationwide

Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, 1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6 percent to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7 percent above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a combination of positive market factors is fueling the gains. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who’ve been on the sidelines. Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes,” he said. “Because it may take as long as two months to close on a home after signing a contract, first-time buyers must act fairly soon to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they must close on the sale by November 30.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast rose 0.4 percent to 81.2 in June and is 5.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 0.8 percent to 89.9 and is 11.6 percent above June 2008. The index in the South jumped 7.1 percent to 100.7 in June and is 8.9 percent higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 2.9 percent to 100.4 but is 0.2 percent below June 2008.

Reprinted from Realtor.org

Mid Summer Activity Report

Summer is heating up and so is activity in the Provincetown real estate market. Showings have increased significantly since the early months of this year and so have the figures for residential properties that have sold or gone into contract. You can see the surge of activity in the fact that there are almost as many properties pending as the total that have sold for the entire year.

For figures of year-to-date sales, current inventory and pending sales for Provincetown, Truro and Wellfleet, check out the Atlantic Bay Sotheby's International Realty Web Site.

The Impact of Interest Rates

Some potential homebuyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for housing prices to hit bottom. It makes sense to buy a house at the lowest price possible but there are other critical considerations to keep in mind. Trying to time the bottom of any market is always difficult. Also, interest rates are at historic lows, and many homebuyers fail to consider the savings that come with low interest rates, particularly over the life of the loan, or even the partial life of the loan.

Mortgage rates are low because of the recession and foreclosures. In addition, the Federal Reserve has moved aggressively to push down mortgage rates by buying as much as $1.75 trillion of housing debt and Treasuries this year. This policy has been successful. Rates on 15-year and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are hovering at historic lows.

What does this mean for you? On a 30-year fixed-rate loan amount of $200,000 at 5%, the interest paid over the life of the loan is $186,512. That brings the total loan payments to $386,512. At 6%, the amount of interest paid rises to $231,676, a 24% increase. At 7%, it’s $279,018, a 49% increase. The lesson here: Keep in mind, what might be gained from a further drop in housing prices could easily be lost by a rise in interest rates.

With regards to the market, let’s review some recent indicators. Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 6.7% in April, the biggest monthly jump since October 2001. Existing home sales rose 2.4% in May with some homes, once again, receiving multiple offers. And the most recent Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index shows the month-to-month decline in housing prices has stalled from 2.8% in January to February, 2.2% in February to March and 0.6% in March to April. This has led many industry experts to anticipate that soon the decline in housing prices will bottom out.

If you have a house in mind, this might be a great opportunity to purchase a second home or investment property.

This article was reprinted with permission from David Bolton, Loan Officer, Prospect Mortgage.

Market Activity First Two Quarters 2009

A look at the market activity for the first two quarters reveals some ups and downs in the market. First the downs: the charts below report that sales volume is down 65-66% in Truro and Provincetown for the first half of this year over last, while Wellfleet is down 35% from last year. The nation’s economic crisis this past Fall and Winter caused many buyers to pause and put on the brakes.

The good news is, the market started to loosen up this Spring, when mortgage rates dropped into the high 4’s. Even though 30 year fixed rates have risen some and are now in the range of 5.4%, buyers are leaving the sidelines and stepping back into the market. Offer activity has soared over the past few weeks, and as of this writing, almost 30 properties are pending in Provincetown, 8 are pending in Truro and 12 are pending in Wellfleet.

Check out this week's Real Estate Blog on Atlantic Bay Sotheby's International Realty Web Site for sales figures in Provincetown, Truro and Wellfleet for the first two quarters (click here).